According to a new report, The Shifting Nature of U.S. Housing Demand, by The Demand Institute, average home prices will increase by up to 1 percent in the second half of 2012. By 2014, home prices will increase by as much as 2.5 percent. From 2015 to 2017, the study projects annual increases between 3 and 4 percent. This recovery will not be uniform across the country, and the strongest markets could capture average gains of 5 percent or more in the coming years. [...]
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Before you go getting too excited over my headline, I should point out that, even though Fed Reserve Board Governor Duke’s presentation today at the National Association of REALTORS mid-year meeting in Washington D.C. was titled “Prescriptions for Housing Recovery”, Governor Duke opened her remarks with “I wish I had such a prescription”. She went on to say that it is difficult to think of a single thing that, by itself will generate a sustainable recovery in housing. She did say, however, that she saw some policies that will help reduce the shadow inventory of houses in the foreclosure pipeline as well as improve the availability of financing to potential home buyers. [...] More good news on the housing market! The national mortgage delinquency rate (borrowers that are 60 or more days past due) declined for the first 3 months of 2012, coming in at 5.78 percent according to a report issued by TransUnion. This is after increases in the delinquency rate in the prior 2 quarters and is the lowest rate since the 1st quarter of 2009. [...] Finally, after several years of writing depressing things about the real estate market and housing industry, I’m getting to write some positive things lately! Well, to keep the party going, today I have a list of 10 towns in the U.S. that are leading the U.S. in terms of a housing market recovery according to the “Top Turnaround Town Report” from REALTOR.com. Seven of the top ten markets are in Florida, but the number 1 turnaround town in the U.S. according to the report is Phoenix-Mesa, Arizona where the inventory of homes for sale has fallen almost 50 percent in the past year while prices increased almost 27 percent during the same period. [...] A report released this morning by CoreLogic, one of the nations leading providers of property information shows that home prices in the U.S. fell in March 0.6 percent from the year before and increased by 0.6 percent from the month before. Excluding distressed sales, month-over-month home prices increased for the third month in a row. If we take distressed sales out of the picture then the year-over-year home prices increased 0.9 percent. [...] In a report released by Trulia, which looks at changes in asking prices on homes that are for sale as a leading indicator of where the market is headed, asking prices on homes for sale were 0.5 percent higher in April than in March. Together with increases in March and February, asking prices for the 3 month period ending in April rose 1.9 percent from the price 3 month period. [...] Home prices fall to lowest levels in almost 10 years; 20-city case shiller lowest since October 2002This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for February was released which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, after both hitting record low levels in the two prior months, fell further in February. The 10-city and 20-city composites saw annual price decline of 3.6 percent and 3.5 percent respectively and both saw price declines of 0.8 percent in February from January. [...] Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data forMarch 2012 showing a decrease of 7.1 percent from the month before, and an increase of 7.5 percent from a year ago. The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for March was 328,000 homes, down from a revised [...] Today’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in March were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.48 million units which is a decrease of 2.6 percent from the month before and an increase of 5.2 percent from a year ago. The actual number of homes sold in March was 361,000 which is an increase of 4.0 percent from the month before and an increase of 0.9 percent from a year ago when there were 347,000 homes sold. [...] For the second month in a row, home prices have risen higher than a year ago. Median prices in March were an impressive 5.8% higher than March 2011 in the 53 metro areas surveyed for the RE/MAX National Housing Report. February marked the first time in 18 months that home prices rose higher than the previous year, and year-to-year price increases haven’t occurred in two consecutive months since August 2010. Home sales in March were 25.4% higher than February and 1.5% higher than March last year. For the last 9 months, sales have reached a level higher than the same month in the previous year. Following these trends, the spring and summer months should experience increased activity. With falling inventory and many markets witnessing multiple offers with bidding competitions, prices are likely to continue to rise in many areas. [...] The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for March 2012 showing a decrease in single-family home building permits from the month before of 3.5 percent and a 17.9 percent increase in new home starts compared to the year before. [...] FICO, a provider of analytics and decision management technology to the banking industry, today announced results from its latest quarterly survey of bank risk professionals which showed that almost half (46 percent) expect the volume of strategic defaults in 2012 to surpass 2011 levels as a result of more than 25 percent of U.S. homeowners owe more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. [...] Attitudes About Homeownership as an Investment, Financial Constraints, and Mortgage Accessibility May Stand in the Way of Americans’ Purchase Decisions Fannie Mae’s latest quarterly National Housing Survey focuses on the state of homeownership aspirations among Americans across all demographic groups. The survey finds that despite the recent housing crisis, most Americans continue to believe [...] According to a report just released by Homeaway, sales of vacation homes in 2011 reached a four-year high, fueled by the lowest median sales price in eight years, cheap mortgage rates, and the desire for a family retreat. The research found 33 percent of vacation home buyers purchased a vacation property last year primarily because of low real estate prices, while another 30 percent cited the desire for a family retreat. According to data from a National Association of REALTORS survey, the median sales prices for vacation properties at $121,300, putting ownership within greater reach of more consumers. [...] The U.S. foreclosure rate in February was 3.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, the same rate as the month before and down slightly from a year before when the rate was 3.6 percent. The U.S. mortgage delinquency rate in February was 7.3 percent, up slightly from the month before when the rate was 7.2 percent but down significantly from a year before when the rate was 7.8 percent. [...] This morning, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index report for January was released which showed both the 10-city and 20-city composites, after both hitting record low levels in December, fell further in January. The 10-city and 20-city composites saw annual price decline of 3.9 percent and 3.8 percent respectively and both saw price declines of 0.8 percent in January from December. [...] Today, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development and U.S. Census Bureau released new home sales data for February 2012 showing a decrease of 1.6 percent from the month before, and an increase of 11.4 percent from a year ago. The seasonally-adjusted new home sales rate for February was 313,000 homes, down from an adjusted rate of 318,000 homes the month before. This is the second consecutive month new home sales have declined. [...] Today’s existing home sales report from the National Association of REALTORS® shows existing home sales in February were at at a seasonally adjusted-annual rate of 4.59 million units which is a decrease of 0.8 percent from the month before and an increase of 8.8 percent from a year ago. The actual number of homes sold in February was 286,000 which is an increase of 10.0 percent from the month before and an increase of 13.0 percent from a year ago when there were 253,000 homes sold. [...] The U.S. mortgage loan delinquency rate was 7.57 percent of all home loans in February, down 5.0 percent from the month before and down 14.0 percent from a year ago, according to the “First-Look” report issued by Lender Processing Services, one of the countries largest loan servicers and aggregators of loan performance data. The foreclosure presale inventory rate was 4.13 percent in February, a 0.5 percent decrease from the month before and a 0.3 percent decrease from a year ago [...] st-louis-realtor-dennis-norman-shadow-inventory-corelogicA report released this morning by CoreLogic shows that the current residential “shadow” inventory as of January 2012 was 1.6 million units, equivalent to a 6-months’ supply, and approximately the same level last reported in October 2011. The shadow inventory is down from a year ago though, when it was at 1.8 million units, or an 8-months’ supply. Currently, the flow of new seriously delinquent (90 days or more) loans into the shadow inventory has been offset by the roughly equal flow of distressed sales (short and real estate owned), according to the report. “Almost half of the shadow inventory is not yet in the foreclosure process,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Shadow inventory also remains concentrated in states impacted by sharp price declines and states with long foreclosure timelines.” [...] The U.S. Census Bureau and US Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) issued their report on New Residential Construction for February 2012 showing an increase in single-family home building permits from the month before of 4.9 percent and a 9.9 percent decrease in new home starts compared to the month before. [...] A report just released by RadarLogic states the obvious by saying “housing is a buyer’s market” which, I think by now, we all know. However the report goes on to dig into the driving forces behind this buyer’s market and makes some interesting (and concerning) observations including the fact that, while the National Association of REALTOR’s reported that the inventory of homes for sale in January dropped to 2.31 million homes (a 6.1 month supply and the lowest level since 2006) this does not take into account vacant homes that have been held off the market, homes that have delinquent mortgages on them and are headed to foreclosure or in the foreclosure process, nor homes with underwater mortgages. This is a large pool of homes that while they are not “on the market” now, a large percentage of them likely will be in the coming months and years thereby increasing the inventory of homes for sale. [...] This morning, RealtyTrac released their U.S. Foreclosure Market Report for February 2012 which shows that foreclosure filings (default notices, scheduled auctions and bank repossessions) we’re reported on 206,900 properties in the U.S. during the month, a 2 percent decrease from the previous month and a decrease of 8 percent from the year before. During the month, 1 out of every 637 homes in the U.S. had a foreclosure filing. [...] According to a national survey released today by Prudential Real Estate, Americans are significantly more optimistic about homeownership than they were a year ago. According to the survey, 60 percent of Americans have favorable views toward the real estate market. That’s up from 52 percent last year. The survey shows other signs of increased consumer optimism as well: [...] A report released today by Zillow shows that median rents rose 3 percent from January 2011 to January 2012 while, during the same period, home prices fell 4.6 percent. According to the report, over two-thirds (69.2 percent) of the metro areas covered saw year-over-year gains in rents but only 7.3 percent of the metros saw home values rise during the same period. [...] Today, CoreLogic, a leading provider of real estate market information, released its March CoreLogic MarketPulse report which had a fairly optimistic outlook on the market including the fact that today 25 percent of all markets are experiencing increases in home prices which is in stark contrast to the height of the housing bust when 96 percent of all markets saw home prices fall. [...] |
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