Dennis Norman
Bear with me, I’m really not an ego-maniac, it’s just so infrequently that anyone of any real authority, or with “PhD” behind their name, agrees with me, that when it does happen I have to sound the horns and bask in the glory for the second or two it lasts!
If you have read any of my articles on any blogs about home sales and new home starts you are well aware of my usual rant about, and distrust of, “seasonally-adjusted” numbers. Quotes from some of my recent posts include:
- I like to look at where things stand is to simply look at the year to date data; actual numbers, not seasonally adjusted…I think this may give a little better comparison
- Let’s do one of my favorite things and look at the raw numbers and not seasonally-adjusted numbers…
- As has been my long-running mantra, I don’t like “seasonally adjusted” numbers and “rate” of sales..
- Here is the raw data, the ACTUAL new homes sold- no fluff, no “adjusting”
Ok, you get the idea…Anyway, up until today I really just thought this was my simple-minded way of looking at things and, even though I think it makes sense, was not surprised that economists were not following my lead. Well, today Standard & Poor’s, the world’s leading index provider and publisher of the closely followed S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, announced they agree with me! Wait, a little bit of an embellishment here by myself, they didn’t actually mention me in their statement, however the statement they issued is consistent with my rants:
After reviewing the data, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Committee believes that for the present time, the unadjusted series is a more reliable indicator of U.S. housing trends than the seasonally adjusted series. Therefore, the Committee suggests that reports should focus on the year-over-year changes in U.S. home prices where seasonal shifts are not a factor, and if monthly changes are considered, that the unadjusted series should be used.”
Related posts:
- Home Price Rebound From Last Fall is Fading
- Home prices show signs of stabilizing according to Case-Shiller report
- Home Prices on upswing according to Case-Shiller home price indices
- Report confirms home prices still falling; headed toward double-dip
- Will that be one scoop or two? Two, answers home prices.
[...] like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal [...]
[...] of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, publisher of the Case/Shiller Index, now either as I wrote about). Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just [...]
[...] of sales (nor does Standard & Poors, publisher of the Case/Shiller Index, now either as I wrote about). Why, for one I can’t figure out how in the world they compute the numbers. Second, I just [...]
[...] like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal [...]
[...] like “seasonally adjusted” numbers (nor does Standard & Poors now either as I wrote about), particularly when artificial stimuli, such as homebuyer tax-credits, can cause an unseasonal [...]
[...] I told you so! [...]
[...] I told you so! [...]
Bravo!